Recently, some experts argued that “from the beginning of the twenty-first century, though, the ability of the United States to act as a unipole was challenged by several factors” including America’s inability to prevail in its large-scale, long-lasting military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and U.S. ineffective response to Russia. But, I think the US is still, by far, the most powerful country in the world. The main danger to the US exercising a stabilizing role in the world is its own domestic politics.
Populist tendencies in both major American political parties are dangerous for American foreign policy decision-making. If the US withdraws from countries because it is the domestically popular thing to do without consideration of the long-term consequences of these actions to our own security or that of our allies and others, it will have very negative repercussions for global stability and security.
The implications of the US withdrawal for the world are not good. While there are countries that tried to get the US to withdraw from Afghanistan because they were uncomfortable with a US presence on their border or in the region, all countries stand to lose from the increased likelihood of Afghanistan becoming a haven for Sunni extremism, the likelihood of increased drug flows emanating from Afghanistan, as well as much higher levels of refugee flows from the country.
Here is a logical question to ask: “How do the people and governments in the region read the U.S. move in leaving Afghanistan alone in the midst of crises? Do they look at the US as an unreliable partner?” In response, I think many countries around the world now wonder if the US government is really committed to a global role or it is continuing to let domestic politics determine its foreign policy. One can hope that there will be enough push-back within the United States against other potential disengagement because of the negative political consequences for the administration for how the Afghanistan withdrawal is unfolding.
No other regional power has the will or the capacity to do what the United States did in Afghanistan since 2001. It seems like several of the regional powers are trying to get on the good side of the Taliban so as to get what they want out of them. Most want good relations with the Taliban, at a minimum, but some countries are interested in Afghanistan’s mineral wealth or keeping Afghanistan from being allied with India, which some regional powers fear.
It is difficult to predict a renewed civil war in Afghanistan, at this time, whether there will be renewed conflict in Afghanistan or there will be meaningful intra-Afghan dialogue and some degree of reconciliation. There are good reasons to believe that the Taliban have not really changed much since the time they last ruled Afghanistan. If they do end up governing like they did from 1996-2001, there is a high likelihood of civil conflict in the country.
China will engage with the Taliban but will not get very involved in Afghan civil affairs. China wants a few things from Afghanistan. They want a stable country in their region, no haven for Uighurs who they view as threatening, access to Afghanistan’s natural resources, and a country that no longer bases US forces.