The Current Situation in Afghanistan and its Regional Consequences

When President Joe Biden announced that US troops would complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, many believed that the nearly twenty-year war was finally drawing to a close. However, at the moment, given the obscurity which surrounds the political, economic, and security processes, the end of the Afghan war seems to be rather inconclusive. The deadline set by President Biden has become a symbolic timeline that has deepened concerns as to whether the Afghan government and Taliban will be able to reach a workable compromise. Sideways it had also ignited fears of the possibility of civil war once the US troops depart.

In the past month, the Taliban have subjugated innumerable districts, as well as captured many trade routes, border crossings, major regional highways and, are said to have completely seized key border crossings with Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. They claim to control almost 85 percent of the country. To be noted is that many districts have fallen without many confrontations. The Taliban storm has impelled Afghanistan’s neighbors to look towards regional powers for help.

Startled by the variability and insecurity in Afghanistan, there is now an awareness within the region of the changing geopolitical dynamics which now includes new and multiple actors at the center stage amidst new realities. Not to be disregarded is the fact that rivalries over and in Afghanistan have also increased. Consequently, regional actors, (Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, and Central Asian states, and Turkey) have become mindful of the fact that staying on the sidelines is not an option anymore, but rather it is time for them to take ownership of their region.

Hence, it can be seen that Afghanistan’s neighbors are augmenting efforts to prevent an all-out civil war in the aftermath of the rapid Taliban advance which safe to say caught everyone – including the government in Kabul- by surprise. Evidence of their concern can be witnessed in the recent Central and South Asian Conference in Uzbekistan in July. The meet was attended by more than a dozen leaders and foreign ministers from the region as well as senior US diplomats, and stability in Afghanistan was a prime focus.

Another dilemma for Afghanistan is that for President Ghani’s government it is more important to save a regime on the brink of collapse as opposed to seeking a lasting agreement that would bring peace to the country.

For now, the peace process remains a stalled but vital component towards achieving lasting stability in Afghanistan. For the time being, the Afghan government and the Taliban continue to battle for control within Afghanistan, with casualties touching unprecedented levels. At the same time, the fast-paced withdrawal of foreign troops amid sdeadlocked peace talks and rising subversive violence in Afghanistan imperils to subvert all peace efforts.

Regional Implications

With Afghanistan deeply embroiled in a war and the government in Kabul and the Taliban holding antipodal political views, there is no resolution in sight and a huge clap-back on the region particularly bordering countries is inevitable.

Economic connectivity in South Asia and Central Asia is underdeveloped even though there is an opportunity for infinitely greater trade among countries in these regions especially in the avenues of power and energy. Afghanistan is a regional crossroads for trade in this region. However, pervasive economic, as well as physical constrictions coupled with a deteriorating political setup, has impeded any progress towards the country becoming a sustainable economic entity. Without a doubt, Afghanistan’s future is entwined with that of the regional states which is why profitable partnerships involving Afghans and their neighbors are critical for regional stability. In this regard, just as peace. In Afghanistan will have a deep bearing on regional security, so too will domestic stability and foreign outlook of neighboring countries affect the development in Afghanistan.

Multiple dangers lurk from continued instability in Afghanistan. First is the anticipation of thousands of Afghan refugees pouring into neighboring countries. Even though Pakistan for instance has constructed barbed wire fencing along the border, there remains a danger of a refugee influx since the same tribes reside on both sides of the border and are heavily interdependent. Secondly is that volatility will cause an automatic increase in levels of smuggling, drug trafficking, and illicit commerce. Thirdly, a major concern is that different militant groups (such as those belonging to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan) might use Taliban-controlled areas as launching pads for carrying out attacks into neighboring countries. Fourthly, is the distinct possibility of a spread of radicalization in neighboring countries particularly hardliners emboldened by Taliban successes in Afghanistan may seek to carry out similar ventures.

Way Forward

Seeing the conjugated nature of security interests of Afghanistan and its neighbors a logical step would be to create a regional security community. However, it should not be forgotten that for any regional arrangement to work, it must be a consolidated effort that takes into account the resources that Afghanistan, regional powers as well as the global community may be willing to commit. Before the setting up of a regional security apparatus, there needs to be a domestic regional mechanism encompassing all bordering countries because a lack of a definitive neighbor countries forum inevitably creates a vacuum at the intermediate ring. It is also very vital that all regional countries are on the same page where peace in Afghanistan is concerned. Any one spoiler will be at the detriment of the entire peace process.

Moreover, regional countries need to play a part without appearing to be aligned with any particular group. In this regard, China can play a more robust backgrounder role since firstly it is not tainted with assertions of supporting a particular Afghan faction, and secondly, it can easily propagate the regional economic benefits of its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road (BRI) initiative which can only come about if there is sustainable stability in Afghanistan.

It goes without saying that the internal dynamics in Afghanistan remain the same. The only thing slightly different is that over the years, the Taliban have evolved from a roadside fighting group into a more flexible and diverse political entity.

A cutback in violence, concrete intra-Afghan discourse, a realization of the Doha talks, and a communally recognized constitutional framework, as well as a future political arrangement, are all essential facets of the Afghan conflict, without which, the likelihood of peace and stability in Afghanistan will remain obscure.