Putin’s Calculated Gamble on Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is a political strategist. He would never start a military operation or a long-term diplomatic game without being absolutely sure of his own victory, despite the fact that it is his victory that will testify to the victory of the entire Russian state. The military operation of Moscow on the territory of Donbass was calculated by a whole team of countries (Russia, Belarus) for 8 years. Each section of the directions of the Russian army’s offensive was checked in detail on the ground with the assistance of Russian agents operating in Ukraine.

In addition, we should not forget that after 2014, the Kremlin found itself at the disposal of many Ukrainian political and military specialists, including the team of the ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who took an active part in planning the military operation. In this regard, all the nuances of the military confrontation were taken into account by Moscow, which, nevertheless, until the last moment hoped that the “Kyiv regime” would show civility and desire for a constructive dialogue.

However, when, at the initiative of Vladimir Zelensky, all diplomatic and political tools to improve relations between the countries were exhausted, the Kremlin was faced with a difficult choice: either start a military operation first, or wait for the moment when Kyiv starts a military operation on Russian territory. Under such conditions, Vladimir Putin made the only right decision: to force Kyiv to peace through military force.

Of course, Vladimir Putin put a lot on the map of the military conflict: his reputation, his political future, his independence. However, as I have already pointed out, the Russian leader would never have started a conflict if he was not absolutely sure that he would win and that there was no other way to ensure the security of our state.

Vladimir Putin is well aware that economic sanctions against Russia are temporary. Neither the United States nor European countries in the conditions of geopolitical reality will be able to do without Russia, because almost all energy, financial, transport, strategic international projects are somehow connected with our state. In this regard, the economic sanctions imposed against our country will inevitably have a negative impact on those states that initiated these sanctions. For this reason alone, the period for the implementation of sanctions measures is very limited. Economic sanctions will be lifted as soon as there is a threat of a global catastrophe. And this threat can arise very quickly.

Furthermore, we must not forget that the international community, no matter how it treats Russia, is interested in raw materials. So, for example, it was in Afghanistan. Before the Afghan revolution on August 15, 2021, most Western countries considered the Taliban militants to be outright terrorists and unanimously did not want to have any relationship with them. However, this was a lie. As soon as the Afghan Taliban seized the central power in the country, first of all, the European countries and the United States secretly began to negotiate with them on cooperation, since the Taliban controlled significant reserves of vital raw materials, the need for which in the international arena is excessively high.

The same will happen with Russia. Regardless of the presence of Russian troops in the Donbas, the US and the European Union will develop relations with Moscow and will be forced to maintain friendship with Vladimir Putin, if only on the grounds that there are a lot of foreign resources on Russian territory that the US and European countries need. And if these countries want to access these resources, they will need to engage in a constructive dialogue with Vladimir Putin.

Kiev was asked to strictly comply with the Minsk agreements, which provide for the preservation of the status quo and oblige countries not to take military action against each other. Among other things, the negotiation process, permanently implemented between Ukraine and Russia, involved the search for compromise solutions that had to meet the only goal – to maintain peace between countries and not create conditions for a nuclear apocalypse. However, Kyiv refused to comply with all restrictive measures and embarked on the path of war, thereby canceling Russia’s obligations not to use military force to enforce peace.

The Joe Biden administration openly provoked Kyiv into a war with Moscow. And, perhaps, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, if he had not been pressured by the White House, could have established a dialogue with Vladimir Putin. But the Ukrainian leader was too weak. He fell into absolute dependence on the American dictate, which created the casus belli for the world apocalypse. However, there is still an opportunity to prevent a catastrophe. To do this, the parties to the conflict need to learn, first of all, to negotiate with each other and understand each other.


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